Gold rate today:- Due to the three US Federal Reserve rate cuts that were announced in 2024, the price of gold ended the last session of FY24 on a very high note.
The April 2024 expiry gold futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) reached a new lifetime high of ₹67,850 per 10 gm before the end of FY24, closing at ₹67,800 per 10 gm.
Gold price increases per 10 gm
In the final two quarters of the current fiscal year, the MCX gold rate increased by about ₹11,000 per 10 gm, even though it ended at ₹67,800.
The spot price of gold concluded the final trading day of FY24 at $2,254 per ounce.
Experts in the commodities market predict that the US Fed will lower interest rates three times in 2024, which might lead to a continuation of the gold price increase in FY25. Thus, in the first nine months, or perhaps the first three quarters of FY 2024–2025, there would be three US Federal Reserve rate cuts.
They stated that the MCX gold rate is predicted to rise to ₹75,000 per 10 gm level in the upcoming fiscal year due to geopolitical concerns, a slowdown in US inflation, and US currency rates.
"Gold price has experienced a remarkable surge, ascending by over ₹11,000 per 10 gm in the last two quarters of the current fiscal year, capturing considerable attention," stated Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, in response to questions about the gold price rally in FY24.
Despite attempts by silver to rise, supply pressure has caused the white metal to face resistance in the ₹78,000 to ₹78,500 per kg range. Nonetheless, a confluence of critical elements indicates that this bullish trend for gold and silver is expected to continue in the upcoming fiscal year, with gold appearing even more radiantly on the canvas."
US Fed News Highlights
"The rally in the gold and silver prices ahead of the end of FY24 was mainly fueled by US Fed rate cut buzz and easing US inflation," stated Anuj Gupta, Head of Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities, when discussing the variables that may influence gold prices in the upcoming fiscal year. As a result, the market has already begun to devalue the three widely anticipated US Fed rate decreases in 2024. Aside from this, the precious yellow and white metal prices may continue to be supported in the upcoming fiscal year 2024–2025 by geopolitical conflict and the US economy's ability to reduce inflation."
According to Anuj Gupta of HDFC Securities, the first half of 2024 will be very important, and investors should schedule their precious metal purchases by putting a rough date on when the US Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates in 2024. For investors in gold and other precious metals, the first US Federal Reserve meeting of FY25, which is set for April 30, 2024, to May 1, 2024, would therefore be crucial. At the start of the upcoming fiscal year, the US Federal Reserve may start reducing interest rates, according to Anuj Gupta of HDFC Securities.
"Gold price may touch $2,350 per ounce in the international market by the end of September 2024 if the US Fed decides to lower interest rate in its upcoming FOMC meeting," stated Anuj Gupta.
Sugandha Sachdeva explained how a reduced interest rate environment will affect the price of gold and silver: "Generally, falling interest rates will support gold prices by lowering the opportunity cost of investing in the precious metal. Additionally, this could indicate a decline in fiat currencies, especially the dollar index, which would increase demand for gold. Furthermore, it is anticipated that the major central banks' current buying binge will last into the upcoming fiscal year and will support the gold rise going forward."
Uncertainties in geopolitics
Sugandha Sachdeva commented on other elements that can influence the direction of gold and silver prices in FY25, saying, "Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is further enhanced by geopolitical uncertainty. There are several large economies that have elections coming up, so there will be a lot of uncertainty in the geopolitical scene, which might make gold more appealing. With the Indian currency close to record lows, the volatile rupee-dollar exchange rate is expected to push up gold prices in local markets."
When combined, these variables show that gold will likely reach new all-time highs in FY25, with forecast values between ₹72,000 and ₹75,000 per 10 gm. The important support level is located between ₹61,200 and ₹59,500 per 10 gm. When asked about the prognosis for the yellow metal, Sugandha responded, "Internationally, the price of gold is expected to trend towards the $2,370 to $2,450 per ounce range."
Outlook for silver prices
"Silver holds promise with a robust demand outlook stemming from global green energy initiatives, 5G technologies, and the electronics segment," Sugandha Sachdeva stated when discussing the outlook for the price of silver in FY25. While gold is expected to lead silver initially, silver is expected to move significantly in the direction of the ₹88,000 to ₹95,000 per kg range in the upcoming fiscal year after it breaks through the resistance zone of ₹78,000 to ₹78,500 per kg.
Disclaimer: Neither MATKA.cyou nor any of the analysts, experts, or broking firms expressed the opinions or suggestions expressed above. It is recommended that investors consult with qualified specialists prior to making any financial decisions.
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